DETROIT – On Monday, the Detroit Lions made quarterback Jared Goff the highest-paid player in franchise history. I understand why they did it, but make no mistake: This changes expectations.
The numbers on the Goff deal are staggering: Four years, $212 million -- $170 million of which is guaranteed. It makes him the second-highest paid player in the NFL in terms of annual value, behind only Joe Burrow.
Is Goff the second-best quarterback in the NFL? Not a chance. He might not even be top 10. But that doesn’t mean this was the wrong move.
What Goff brings to Lions
With this deal, the Lions weren’t just paying for what Goff does on the field. They were paying for stability, continuity, and security.
Detroit is entering a window of Super Bowl contention that most fans have never witnessed. The offense is loaded and the defense has playmakers. The next several years should be all about bringing a Lombardi Trophy to Ford Field.
Obviously, the Lions can’t go anywhere without a good quarterback, and right now, they have one.
Goff isn’t a star, but he’s good enough to get to a Super Bowl. He did it with the Rams and he would have done it last season if Josh Reynolds had caught a fourth-down pass.
In the NFL, you never want to be searching for a quarterback. Look at the Cleveland Browns, who searched for so long that they made a desperate move for Deshawn Watson -- and that didn’t work out.
It doesn’t matter how safe a quarterback seems coming out of college. Ask the Panthers how they’re feeling about Bryce Young right now. For every C.J. Stroud there are 10 Zach Wilsons. You never truly know what you’re going to get from a player until you see him in the league.
The Lions know exactly what they’re going to get from Goff over the next four years. That’s why he was worth the commitment.
Goff is also a lynchpin in the culture Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes have built in Detroit. He’s calm and centered, but he’s also beloved by his teammates and the city.
We’ve heard “Jared Goff” chants break out at the NFL Draft, on flights to away games, at random stores throughout the country during the playoffs -- heck, I heard it at Comerica Park last night.
Goff has the support of his coaches, his teammates, and the fan base. So the Lions aren’t just paying for what he does between the white lines.
There’s also something to be said for Goff’s durability. Since 2017, he’s played in 110 of his teams’ 115 games, including 48 of 51 since getting to Detroit (and all 34 since the start of 2022).
Some of that is due to his greatest weakness: mobility. Goff can’t make plays with his legs like many of the league’s top quarterbacks. But he also takes on less wear and tear as a result.
Rewarding top players
This contract also reminded me of something Terrion Arnold said after the Lions drafted him in the first round last month. He was asked about the contract extensions for Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell.
“It just shows when you get drafted here, it’s just not one of those things where you just get picked,” Arnold said. “You could be here, you could develop a long-lasting relationship, and they’re here to keep their players and make their players happy. With them doing that, that just rewards the program, but it’s also a testament to the hard work the players have put in.”
The Lions made St. Brown the league’s highest-paid receiver and Sewell the league’s highest-paid offensive lineman on the same day. Holmes clearly wants to show that players who come to Detroit will be rewarded for their success.
That’s not just attractive to free agents, it’s also motivation for players already on the roster.
NFC North quarterbacks
Detroit also has to face the reality of what’s happening around the rest of the NFC North Division.
The Packers appear to have their latest quarterback of the future in Jordan Love. The 25-year-old took over as a starter for the first time in 2023 and led the Packers to the postseason, passing for 4,159 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.
That’s not far off from Goff’s 4,575 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 picks.
Love also rushed for 247 yards, 16 first downs, and four scores. In the final eight games, he completed over 70% of his passes for 2,150 yards, 18 touchdowns, and one interception.
It sure looks like the Packers are set at the quarterback position for a long time.
The Bears and Vikings have also made significant investments at the position. Chicago took consensus No. 1 prospect Caleb Williams at the top of the draft, and the Vikings landed Michigan national champion J.J. McCarthy at No. 10.
We don’t know what Williams or McCarthy will do at the NFL level, but they’re both elite prospects who could improve the Bears and Vikings deep into the future.
If that’s the case, the Lions don’t want to be the only team in the NFC North with questions at the most important position.
Future QB contracts
If you follow contracts in the NFL, you know they’re almost as much about timing as they are about production.
In a few years, Goff’s contract will probably be closer to the 10th-richest among NFL quarterbacks -- that’s just the way this wheel turns. The top five annual salaries at QB are all guys who have received contracts in the last year, and that trend isn’t going to change.
By the end of this deal, Goff will be 33 or 34 years old and probably around the eighth- to 12th-highest-paid quarterback in the league. That doesn’t sound so bad, does it?
Expectations have to change
Even though Goff received this contract because of what he’s done in the past, he has to earn it with how he performs in the future.
And he’s going to be graded on an entirely different curve.
Over the past two seasons, Goff has been judged based on the assumption that he was a throw-in in the Matthew Stafford deal. Anything the Lions got out of him felt like a bonus.
That’s not the case anymore. Now he’s one of the highest-paid players in the league, and the Lions need him to play like it.
The $170 million that’s guaranteed to Goff will greatly affect how the Lions approach their roster construction in the future. Will they be able to retain Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill, Sam LaPorta, and others after the commitments they’ve made this offseason?
Goff’s success in Detroit has been so widely celebrated because most people expected him to be a temporary stopgap until the Lions used one of the first-round picks from the Stafford trade to draft a rookie.
Now we all know that the franchise is truly in his hands.
This means every bad game will spark discussion about his contract. The numbers will be all over social media after every interception. He’ll constantly be compared to MVP-caliber quarterbacks who currently make less money.
Goff has expertly handled plenty of off-the-field pressure in his career. We’ll see if he can do it with a $212 million elephant in the room.
Final thoughts
I have some reservations about this massive commitment, but when you consider the Lions’ alternatives, extending Goff is a no-brainer.
They can’t afford to build a championship-caliber roster and then gamble it all on an unproven Hendon Hooker.
And whether or not they win a Super Bowl, the Lions are going to be a solid team, at the very least. That means they won’t draft high enough to land an elite QB prospect.
The Lions have had quarterback problems before, and it’s a bad place to be. I understand why they stepped up and made sure that while they might not have a major quarterback advantage going forward, it also won’t hold them back.
Holmes had two options: extend Goff or face the great unknown. No matter how this plays out, I think he made the right call.